The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped crucial oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pushing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the prospective to toss governments’ long-term preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the truth, increasing long term international demands appear certain to overtake production in the next years, particularly provided the high and increasing expenses of establishing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan’s overseas Kashagan and Brazil’s southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing costs drive this innovation to the forefront, among the richest possible production areas has been completely ignored by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR’s cotton “plantation,” the area is poised to end up being a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign financial investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia’s ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom due to the fact that of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and fairly little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have mainly inhibited their capability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy needs up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly dependent for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their heightened requirement to create winter season electrical power has caused autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan’s and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev’s “Virgin Lands” programs, has ended up being a major producer of wheat. Based on my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower extent Astana for those hardy financiers ready to wager on the future, especially as a plant indigenous to the region has already proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business already examining how to produce it in business quantities for . In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the first Asian carrier to try out flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month examination of camelina’s operational efficiency ability and possible commercial practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia’s thirsty “king cotton,” camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, requires less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia’s major wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will consist of 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant’s debris can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great livestock feed candidate that is just now acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain’s Bangor University’s Centre for Alternative Land Use, “Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape.”

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence suggests it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three centuries to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds’ small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can develop issues in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina’s potential might allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the nation’s efforts at agrarian reform given that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow’s growing textile market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise bought by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce “white gold.”

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-dependent in cotton